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유가변동이 한국 경제에 미치는 영향 (영문)

IntroductionInternational cost of fuel constantly goes up and down, however if the fluctuation in fuel prices leads to financial or social panic, it is called “The Oil Crisis” or “Oil shock”. All the countries of the world have gone through the Oil Crisis twice. The Oil Crisis arose from the restriction of oil supply in accordance with war or political reasons among the Middle East nations. (Smith, William. D. 1973)The Fourth Middle East war triggered off the first oil crisis. OAPEC ( HYPERLINK "/wiki/Organization_of_Arab_Petroleum_Exporting_Countries"Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries) prohibited to ship oil nations that had supported Israel such as the United States, its allies in Western Europe, and Japan. They used petroleum as weapons to accomplish their political purposes. (Richie Ovendale 2004)The first oil crisis led to quadrupling of the cost of fuel and the world economy suffered serious losses. Advanced nations organized the IEA (International Energy Agency) f course, it depends on an importation to get petroleum and it is affected by fluctuations in fuel prices. How do fluctuations in fuel prices influence Korea? Now that it is assumed the third oil crisis by many economists, it is being taken a growing interest in the fluctuation in petroleum prices.BodyAs I mentioned, the recent rising cost of oil is different from first and second crisisses. The background of fluctuations in petroleum prices can be classified into two big sides which are financial side such as a primary factor of supplies and demands of oil and political side such as the Middle East situation. The important thing is two things are complicated to occur at the same time. (Daniel Yergin 1991) The reason why recent sudden rise of oil prices is not that OPEC( HYPERLINK "/wiki/Organization_of_Arab_Petroleum_Exporting_Countries"Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) reduced the output of petroleum, but that basically, supplies and demands of fuel is too tight. In othel is becoming a political product as the age of high gas prices extends over a long period of time. Moreover, political instability and disorder of the Middle Eastern countries could be one of the reasons to influence fluctuations in gas prices. For instance, the war between the United States and Iraq, political instability of Saudi Arabia, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, Iran and the nuclear issue and political instability of Nigeria.The Korean government has recognized the crisis of petroleum since gas prices passed over $100 per a barrel. According to recent the Joong-An which was Korean newspaper, Korean government established a policy which has a goal to reduce the quantity of oil consumed about 11% in order to cope with high gas prices. (Korea Petroleum Association)Influences upon economy in accordance with the rise in oil priceThe National Statistical OfficeThe risen oil prices leads to be risen the consumers’ price and the rate of interest moreover, the international comg period of time. Also products of a high effective energy such as power saving product should be considered to switch in business structure to a higher value-added business.Korea is well-known country for a shipbuilding industry. The rise in oil price produces a golden opportunity to develop shipbuilding industry because the demand for LNG and LPG which are natural gas will increase in order to take a growing interest in an alternative energy. On top of that, orders to special ships for abyssal oil exploration increase, now, demand for a shipbuilding from the Far Eastern countries are increasing as around ten vessels every year moreover, its tendency will continue by 2010. (Korea Petroleum Bulletin)In a fiber industry, the cost of product goes down even though the cost of raw materials goes up. In other words, a synthetic fiber or a textile industry will groan under a heavy burden of the prime cost because PTA and caprolactam which are synthesis materials will be expensive.Securities ce is caused by structural causes therefore, it is hard to solve in a short period of time. Look into the circumstances, oil price will maintain high position because it is expected that the newly industrializing countries such as Brazil, Russia, Iran and China which are called BRICs will consume crude petroleum more than now and it is not easy to secure enough alternative energy in a short period of time. In the aspect of supply, oil of lower price is not expected unless OPEC’s productive capacity increases and strengthening of natural resources nationalism, dangerous of geopolitics will not change. These could be primary causes to continue the stage of a high oil price.Korea does not have any petroleum resources. In 1980s, there were attempts to find petroleum resources from national undertaking however, it did not work out. Importing oil from oil-producing countries is only one way to get oil. The best way they can do is saving. Korean policy makers need to induce agreement of the gAT 1

경영/경제| 2008.09.14| 11페이지| 3,000원| 조회(306)

한국, 유가, 영문, 영향, 변동

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