Can China Avoid the Middle-Income Trap?

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국동북아경제학회
· 수록지 정보 : 동북아경제연구 / 26권 / 2호 / 207 ~ 244페이지
· 저자명 : 이두원, 한일규

초록

China has achieved miraculous economic growth during the last 35 years withthe average annual growth rate of roughly 9%. As the nominal income percapita approaches $7,000, however, there is a concern whether China can avoidthe so-called ‘middle-income trap (MIT)’. It means that the advantage ofbackwardness the Chinese economy has enjoyed so far has been exhausted, andChina needs to find a way to achieve a self-sustainable growth path in thefuture.
Unfortunately, however, many developing countries after the World War IIhave failed to escape MIT after they reach a certain level of income. Generallyspeaking, these countries have reached 20-30% level of the US per-capita incomelevel successfully, but their catch-up processes have been stagnant afterward. Inparticular, countries in MIT could not increase their per-capita income levelbeyond the 40% of the US per-capita income level. These countries sharecommon characteristics like the followings: lack of highly educated humancapital, lack of self-innovation capability, high degree of income inequality,insufficient and inefficient investment, and failure to upgrade its industrialstructure. Even though China does not share all of these characteristics, Chinastill has problems such as rapidly aging population, deteriorating income distribution, and inefficient allocation of capital.
There are only a few countries who have escaped the middle-income trapsuccessfully after the World War II in Asia. They are Japan, Korea, Taiwan,Singapore, and Hong Kong. These countries have passed the threshold incomelevel of 40% of the U.S. per capita income level, and have reached 60 to 80%of the U.S. per capita income level by today. Out of these countries, however,Korea and Japan would be the most relevant countries China can draw policyimplications as the other three countries differ vastly from China in terms of itsindustrial structure and economic size. When China is compared to thesecountries, China needs to improve the efficiency of capital allocation. Also,recent slowdown of TFP (total factor productivity) needs to be tackled seriously.
Resolving these problems along with other social problems will eventuallydetermine whether China can avoid MIT or not.

참고자료

· 없음