기후변수와 쌀 생산성 : 패널 지역자료를 이용한 준모수적 분석 (Climate Variables and Rice Productivity: A Semi-parametric Analysis Using Panel Regional Data)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국농업경제학회
· 수록지 정보 : 농업경제연구 / 54권 / 3호 / 71 ~ 94페이지
· 저자명 : 조현경, 조은빛, 권오상, 노재선

초록

The purpose of this study is to estimate the impacts of climate variables on rice productivity in Korea. In order to allow for a flexible functional relationship, the penalized apline regression which is a semi-parametric model is used. A panel data set of 49 cities and towns for the period from 1996 to 2011 is used for estimation. The spline regression model allows random intercepts incorporating the panel nature of the data set. Moreover, we identify the observations with extreme weather conditions such as flood in order to incorporate the increasing variability of climate factors.
The study finds that rice productivity is significantly affectede by technical change, sunshine duration and temperature in the grain-filling months. It is found that the variables of sunshine duration must be incorporated as non-parametric elements of the semi-parametric model. There is a positive relationship between sunshine duration and productivity. An inverted U-shape relationship between temperature and productivity is found. The study shows that the peak temperature comes earlier if the panel-nature of the data is taken into account.

영어초록

The purpose of this study is to estimate the impacts of climate variables on rice productivity in Korea. In order to allow for a flexible functional relationship, the penalized apline regression which is a semi-parametric model is used. A panel data set of 49 cities and towns for the period from 1996 to 2011 is used for estimation. The spline regression model allows random intercepts incorporating the panel nature of the data set. Moreover, we identify the observations with extreme weather conditions such as flood in order to incorporate the increasing variability of climate factors.
The study finds that rice productivity is significantly affectede by technical change, sunshine duration and temperature in the grain-filling months. It is found that the variables of sunshine duration must be incorporated as non-parametric elements of the semi-parametric model. There is a positive relationship between sunshine duration and productivity. An inverted U-shape relationship between temperature and productivity is found. The study shows that the peak temperature comes earlier if the panel-nature of the data is taken into account.

참고자료

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