거시경제 변수를 이용한 부동산 프로젝트 파이낸싱 연체율 결정 요인에 관한 연구 (A Study on Determinants of Delinquency Rate of Real Estate Project Financing Using Macroeconomic Variables)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국부동산정책학회
· 수록지 정보 : 부동산정책연구 / 19권 / 2호 / 75 ~ 102페이지
· 저자명 : 황윤구, 이석원, 송명수

초록

Regarding the real estate PF loans, according to the examination criteria getting nearly the same with all of the commercial banks implementing the regulations in earnest, they can bring forth the important reliability with regard to the understanding the influences of the causal variables at the time point of the loan and after the loan, the analyses in the long-term viewpoint, the decision on the variables, and the prediction of the future. Especially, regarding the real estate PF, because the size of the business and the size of the loans are considerable, when a delay regarding this has occurred, there is no choice but for the influence to have the big spreading ability in the market economy, too, including the real estate market. As such, the securing of the reliability regarding the risks is important regarding short-term and long-term aspects. As such, by making the PF data of the banks into the time series, this research had intended to find the decision factors that combine the macroeconomic factors and their causal variables.
The temporal research in this research had intended to secure the recentness from after the work of the computerization of the real estate PF from the fourth quarter of 2006 until the fourth quarter of 2017 and then had intended to take a look at the data in relation to the macroscopic flows. Regarding the spatial range, it had been proceeded with from the data of the fourth quarter of 2006 based on the real estate PF loans nationwide by the K bank. To suit this, the macroeconomic indices, too, had the data that had been accumulated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation and the Bank of Korea as the objects.
Regarding the real estates, according to the different appearances of the fluctuations of the prices and the market situation according to the region, it is intended to carry out a comparative analysis by distinguishing into the capital city region and the non-capital city region.
regarding the theory of the multivariate time series, by proceeding with the unit root test, the cointegration test, the Granger causal relationship analysis, the setting up of the model, the shock reaction, and the dispersion decomposition, in their order, the stability regarding the time-series variables and the model had been established. And, at the same time, the influences had been empirically analyzed.
It can possess the meaning that the real estate PF market can be understood and forecasted through the long-term viewpoint. And, through such a result, it can be applied in planning, too, for the predictions and the policies in the future.
Despite this, regarding the limitations of this research, there is the limitation regarding the expandability of the data because the proceeding had taken place by centering on the one place of the K bank and there is the limitation that the analyses through the diverse viewpoints considering the many-sided economic indices and the others of the like had not been included. And the limitations of such analyses are the parts that must be improved through the researches in the future.

영어초록

Regarding the real estate PF loans, according to the examination criteria getting nearly the same with all of the commercial banks implementing the regulations in earnest, they can bring forth the important reliability with regard to the understanding the influences of the causal variables at the time point of the loan and after the loan, the analyses in the long-term viewpoint, the decision on the variables, and the prediction of the future. Especially, regarding the real estate PF, because the size of the business and the size of the loans are considerable, when a delay regarding this has occurred, there is no choice but for the influence to have the big spreading ability in the market economy, too, including the real estate market. As such, the securing of the reliability regarding the risks is important regarding short-term and long-term aspects. As such, by making the PF data of the banks into the time series, this research had intended to find the decision factors that combine the macroeconomic factors and their causal variables.
The temporal research in this research had intended to secure the recentness from after the work of the computerization of the real estate PF from the fourth quarter of 2006 until the fourth quarter of 2017 and then had intended to take a look at the data in relation to the macroscopic flows. Regarding the spatial range, it had been proceeded with from the data of the fourth quarter of 2006 based on the real estate PF loans nationwide by the K bank. To suit this, the macroeconomic indices, too, had the data that had been accumulated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transportation and the Bank of Korea as the objects.
Regarding the real estates, according to the different appearances of the fluctuations of the prices and the market situation according to the region, it is intended to carry out a comparative analysis by distinguishing into the capital city region and the non-capital city region.
regarding the theory of the multivariate time series, by proceeding with the unit root test, the cointegration test, the Granger causal relationship analysis, the setting up of the model, the shock reaction, and the dispersion decomposition, in their order, the stability regarding the time-series variables and the model had been established. And, at the same time, the influences had been empirically analyzed.
It can possess the meaning that the real estate PF market can be understood and forecasted through the long-term viewpoint. And, through such a result, it can be applied in planning, too, for the predictions and the policies in the future.
Despite this, regarding the limitations of this research, there is the limitation regarding the expandability of the data because the proceeding had taken place by centering on the one place of the K bank and there is the limitation that the analyses through the diverse viewpoints considering the many-sided economic indices and the others of the like had not been included. And the limitations of such analyses are the parts that must be improved through the researches in the future.

참고자료

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