이월결손금의 미래법인세효과에 관한 재무분석가의 해석 (Analysts' Interpretation of Income Tax Effect Disclosure of Net Operating Losses)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국경영학회
· 수록지 정보 : 경영학연구 / 37권 / 2호 / 375 ~ 414페이지
· 저자명 : 최원욱, 박종일, 장금주

초록

본 연구는 이월결손금의 미래법인세효과가 재무분석가의 이익예측오차에 어떠한 영향을 주는지를 분석하였다. 현행 기업 회계기준서 제16호 이연법인세에 관한 회계기준은 이월결손금의 미래법인세효과를 인식함에 있어서 경영자의 주관을 허용하고 있다(백원선과 김상헌 2005; 전성일과 최 관 2004 등). 이연법인세 분야의 기존 연구들이 주로 가치관련성을 중심으로 분석이 수행되었으나, 본 연구는 재무분석가의 이익예측의 편의 및 정확성을 분석하였다는 점에서 선행연구와 차이가 있다. 실증분석에 이용된 기간은 1999년부터 2004년까지이다.
실증결과에 따르면 첫째, 이월결손금의 인식여부를 통해 알아본 결과, 이월결손금의 법인세효과를 계상한 기업이면 재무 분석가의 이익예측의 정확성이 더 낮아지는 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 이월결손금의 미래법인세효과의 당기 변동분을 이용한 결과, 이월결손금의 법인세효과 금액 중 자산으로 계상된 금액이 전기보다 증가할수록 재무분석가의 이익예측치는 실제이익에 비하여 더 낙관적 편의(optimistic bias)를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 주가와의 추가분석 결과, 이월 결손금의 이연법인세 효과가 클수록 주가는 유의한 음(-)의 계수 값이 관찰되었다. 이러한 결과는 이월결손금에 대한 법인세효과에 대하여 주식시장의 반응은 부정적이라는 것을 의미한다.
이상의 연구결과를 종합하면, 이월결손금 자산성 판단을 통해 경영자가 제공한 기업전망에 대한 예측정보는 재무분석가들의 이익예측 정확성을 높이는데 유용하지 못함을 시사하며 경영자와 정보이용자간의 정보불균형을 감소하는데 효과적이지 않다고 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 이월결손금 자산성 판단을 통해 제공된 경영자의 경영전망에 대한 예측 정보가 재무분석가의 이익예측 과정에 활용하는가를 살펴보았다는 측면에서 의의가 있다고 본다.

영어초록

We examine how analysts’ earnings forecast errors are affected by the income tax effect disclosure of net operation losses in financial statements. The current accounting standards regarding deferred income tax permit managers’ discretion when the managers disclose the future income tax effect of net operating losses as part of deferred tax assets. If the managers are confident that their firms can generate future earnings enough to offset the current net operating losses, they would disclose net operating losses as parts of deferred assets. If the managers are pessimistic, they would not disclose all the net operating losses as assets. Thus, the amount of net operating losses disclosed as deferred tax assets mirrors managers’ expectation of future earnings and it could be an important factor when analysts forecast the firms’ future earnings.
As the amount of disclosure depends on manager’s discretion, net operating losses reported as parts of deferred tax assets have been investigated a means of earnings management in previous studies. Deferred tax disclosure in general has been tested in capital market studies if it would enhance the information usefulness of financial statements. Apart from most disclosure items in the financial statements, future income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses could be too complicated to be understood by both naive and sophisticated information users. Our study investigates the impact of net operating losses disclosure on both analysts earnings forecast errors and stock market valuation.
If the managers’ expectation of future profitability is honestly disclosed in the net operating losses section of deferred tax assets and the analysts do not fail to comprehend the managers’ discretion correctly, the disclosure would enhance information usefulness of financial statements and reduce analysts’ earnings forecast errors. If the managers use the disclosure as a means for earnings management or analysts are not capable of comprehending the information, the disclosure would increase analysts’ earnings forecast errors. Although the disclosure might be useful for some analysts, it is not certain the disclosure could be appreciated or utilized by less sophisticated investors in the stock market. We argue that the income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses would contribute neither to reducing analysts’ earnings forecast error nor to enhancing the information usefulness of financial statements in the capital market.
Our explanatory variables are alternative measures of deferred tax assets amount that is recognized due to net operating losses expected to be offset with future earnings. We use a dummy variable for the firms reporting net operating losses as parts of deferred tax assets, a level variable for the amount of net operating losses, and a change variable for the incremental amount of net operating losses from prior years. Our dependent variables are alternative measures of analysts’ forecast errors. The signed value of forecast errors is used to measure the bias in forecast errors while the absolute value of forecast errors is used to measure the accuracy of forecast errors. Our main hypothesis is that income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses (measured by a dummy, level or change variable) affects analysts’ earnings forecast errors (measured by bias or accuracy of errors). As an additional analysis, we test whether income tax effect disclosure of net operating losses has an impact on the stock price.
Samples are selected from KIS-Value, Fn-Guide databases to represent non-financial, December fiscal-year-end firms that were listed in the Korean Stock Exchange from 1999 to 2004. Our findings suggest that (1) analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy declines for the firms that recognize the income tax effect of net operating losses, (2) analysts’ earnings forecast shows optimistic bias for the firms that reported the increase in deferred tax asset components of net operating losses from the previous year, and (3) stock price responds negatively for the amount of deferred tax assets recognized due to net operating losses expected to be offset in the future. Thus, the disclosure of net operating losses in deferred tax assets is found to not only increase analysts’ earnings forecast errors but also cause optimistic bias in errors. The disclosure is not perceived favorably by the stock market investors, too. We conclude that the current disclosure practice of net operating losses as parts of deferred tax assets does not contribute to the usefulness of the financial statement information for both sophisticated users like analysts and naive investors in the stock market. The disclosure does not effectively alleviate the information asymmetry between managers and financial statement users.

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