고해상도 SSP 시나리오 기반의 우리나라 미래 태양광 잠재 발전량 전망 (Future projection of photovoltaic potential over South Korea based on high-resolution shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) scenarios)

서지정보

· 발행기관 : 한국기후변화학회
· 수록지 정보 : 한국기후변화학회지 / 14권 / 4호 / 465 ~ 480페이지
· 저자명 : 김진욱, 김도현, 김태준, 정주용, 변영화, 서명석

초록

The study predicts the future photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) changes over South Korea based on high-resolution climate change scenarios. According to the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), at the late 21st century, surface down-welling shortwave radiation, which has a major impact on PVpot, is expected to increase (by about +0.7 ∼ +3.5 W/m2) compared to the present-day. However, the increase or decrease of PVpot depends on the level of emissions in the future. In the low-emissions scenario, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +1.3%), while that in the high-emissions scenarios, PVpot isare expected to decrease (by about -0.7 ∼ -2.0%). As the temperature increases significantly, the temperature of the solar cell panels increase, and the performance ratio of PVpot decreases. This means that, even though the surface down-welling shortwave radiation increases, the increase in temperature may offset the positive impact on PVpot. Seasonally, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +2.3 ∼ +4.0%) in summer and decrease (by about -3.6 ∼ -7.1%) in winter. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering the impact of climate change on solar energy. It also emphasizes the need to adopt low-emissions policies to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on renewable energy generation potential.

영어초록

The study predicts the future photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) changes over South Korea based on high-resolution climate change scenarios. According to the four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), at the late 21st century, surface down-welling shortwave radiation, which has a major impact on PVpot, is expected to increase (by about +0.7 ∼ +3.5 W/m2) compared to the present-day. However, the increase or decrease of PVpot depends on the level of emissions in the future. In the low-emissions scenario, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +1.3%), while that in the high-emissions scenarios, PVpot isare expected to decrease (by about -0.7 ∼ -2.0%). As the temperature increases significantly, the temperature of the solar cell panels increase, and the performance ratio of PVpot decreases. This means that, even though the surface down-welling shortwave radiation increases, the increase in temperature may offset the positive impact on PVpot. Seasonally, PVpot is expected to increase (by about +2.3 ∼ +4.0%) in summer and decrease (by about -3.6 ∼ -7.1%) in winter. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering the impact of climate change on solar energy. It also emphasizes the need to adopt low-emissions policies to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on renewable energy generation potential.

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